Myanmar's conflict has come to a pivotal point, with the stakes remaining delicately poised. Its three-year-old civil war has had the army junta locked in fierce struggles against a leadership coalition of ethnic minority forces and pro-democracy opposition groups. But the course of this conflict is being decidedly shaped by a single outside element: China's attitude.
China's interests in Myanmar are diversified, from strategic geographical benefits to huge economic investments. The nation has been a major participant in Myanmar's growth, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to promote regional connectivity and economic integration. Due to the intensity of these interests, China's actions will probably determine the level of the resistance's success towards the junta.
The Tatmadaw, the armed forces of Myanmar, overthrew the democratic regime headed by Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup in February 2021. The act was followed by mass protests and later armed opposition by different ethnic communities which have been engaging in a protracted struggle against the military's governance. The junta's vicious suppression of dissent has resulted in serious humanitarian crises such as displacement and casualties.
China, although officially remaining neutral in the conflict, has traditionally been pro-Myanmar military. The reason for this is primarily because of China's strategic interests, such as its desire to preserve stability along its borders and its need to guard its investments within Myanmar. But China also maintains relations with a number of different ethnic groups on its border that it manages delicately to maintain its interests.
Myanmar's resistance groups are varied and include both ethnic minority groups and pro-democracy combatants. These groups have been working together to strike the junta's vulnerabilities effectively. Though they are determined and have achieved some victories, they also have some big challenges, including scarce resources and coordination problems. How far these groups can go in continuing their resistance will also depend in part on the amount of support they get, both internally and from outside.
China's role in the conflict is not merely that of military power but also economic influence. Most of Myanmar's infrastructure undertakings, vital to the nation's development and the survival of the junta, have Chinese backing in terms of investments. This economic influence provides China vast influence over the Myanmar military's actions and, by proxy, the course of the conflict.
The world has been observing the crisis in Myanmar with increasing alarm. Demands for diplomatic and economic sanctions against the junta have become more insistent, but their efficacy is yet to be tested. With China's powerful influence over Myanmar, any effective action would most probably need China's cooperation or, at least, its compliance.
The result of the civil war in Myanmar will have serious ramifications, not only for Myanmar itself but for the wider region. The humanitarian crisis is worsening by the day, with hundreds of thousands displaced and thousands dead. As fighting continues, the influence of outside powers, especially China, will play a decisive role in Myanmar's future.
Essentially, the extent to which the resistance can proceed against the junta is inextricably intertwined with China's choices. Whether China decides to utilize its power to advocate for a peaceful transition or to assist the military in order to secure its interests will only be revealed over time. One thing, however, is clear: Myanmar's future remains uncertain, and the next few months will prove decisive in determining the nation's future.